American tribalism & why Obama will most likely lose PA

In his brave speech yesterday, Barack Obama gave us a preview of what it would be like to have a president who addresses US citizens as if we were adults capable of understanding complex issues and nuance. In stark contrast to what we've been exposed to for the interminable length of the Bush administration, not only was the speaker able to assemble multi-syllabic words into coherent sentences, paragraphs and themes, he did us the honor of assuming we were able to comprehend more than bumpersticker slogans and monochromatic portrayals of us vs. them, good vs. evil.

Obama staked his entire candidacy on our ability to get it. He must have known Fox News, the National Review and Rush Limbaugh would cherry-pick his speech to pair nuggets like "Jeremiah Wright is like family to me" with clips of Wright's unhinged rants. Obama must have known Limbaugh's sole take-away from the speech would be that Obama has become "the candidate of race."

But to Limbaugh and his regrettably numerous ilk, Obama or any other black man was always the candidate of race. The speech had nothing to do with that. To the Limbaughs of the world, Donovan McNabb, Doug Williams or Vince Young will always be the black quarterback propped up by a fawning media. It doesn't matter how many playoff games they win or how many white quarterbacks they outperform. A black quarterback could win the Super Bowl single-handedly, and Limbaugh would discern affirmative action in the referees' calls. That's just how Limbaugh rolls, and nothing will ever change it. Obama knows this.

Why Obama can win Iowa but not Pennsylvania

Obama's speech was a gamble. He's betting that there are enough of us who see through the tribalistic bullshit to carry the day. Is he right? I honestly don't know. But it was a smart bet -- the only bet.

As he mentioned in the speech, the Reagan coalition was built on a foundation of racial resentment, primarily in the South, but also in the Rust Belt and other places where working class anxiety could be harnessed, channeling the tribal impulse to serve political ends. It has worked like a charm since 1980.

This was what made Reagan a politically transformative figure. Obama correctly identified Reagan as such months ago, in a statement that was widely misunderstood by some Democrats as praise for Republican ideals.

But he was right then, and he was right to take the gamble in yesterday's speech. Obama is betting that the political coalition cobbled together in 1980 is about to break apart. He may be correct. But we won't know for awhile. He'll probably lose Pennsylvania big time, and the pundits who have been so complicit in creating the deplorable state of our political discourse will parse the polls to conclude, as they did after Ohio, that working class white Democrats won't vote for Obama. They'll ponder the mystery of Obama's ability to win lily-white states like Iowa while losing Rust Belt states.

I think it's pretty simple: In the South, as in many other states, the Archie Bunker types have been Republicans for nearly 30 years now. In the Rust Belt, it's a little different. Union ties and perhaps religious tribalism still bind large numbers of bigots to the Democratic Party. I think it's as simple as that. They'll probably vote for McCain in the general, but they'll turn out in droves to take Obama down in the primary.

We'll find out in November

So it comes down to numbers: Who is more numerous among the electorate -- the Archie Bunkers and Dittoheads who want to keep our politics mired in ignorance, stupidity and tribalism, or the people who are ready to move on? Today is the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq war, which has needlessly killed tens of thousands of people and wasted around half a trillion dollars to date. We surely have more important things to talk about than whose pastor is selling the most obnoxious brand of crazy.

Like Obama, I'm still hoping we're smarter than that. Given our recent history, that takes a leap of faith, and faith is something that is generally in short supply at Chez Cracker. But you know, this is why Obama's gambit may actually work -- to accomplish something great, you have to first be willing to believe it is possible.